Hogs Posting Mixed Reaction to Tariffs

Lean hog futures saw some early strength on Thursday, but are fading back at midday, with contracts down 90 cents to $1. April is an exception, up 12 cents. The USDA national average base hog negotiated price was down $1.62 from the day prior at $87.34 in the Thursday AM report. CME’s Lean Hog Index from April 1 was up 15 from the previous day on at $88.80.
Wednesday’s “Liberation Day” tariffs came with Mexico and Canada left off the list and the exemption on all USMCA compliant goods remaining in place. Reciprocal tariffs were put in place on Japan at 24%, South Korea at 25% and China at 34% (54% including the initial set of tariffs from earlier this year). They go into effect on April 9.
Pork export sales totaled 52,953 MT in the week that ended on March 27, the largest so far this MY. Mexico was the buyer of 30,600 MT, with 10,300 MT to China. Export shipments came in at 32,899 MT, which was a 3-week high. Of that total, 12,200 MT was headed to Mexico, with 5,200 MT to South Korea.
Census trade data was released this morning, with a converted carcass basis total of 565.2 million lbs of pork exported in February. That was a 2% decline from January and down 4.8% from last year.
Thursday morning’s pork cutout print from USDA was down 13 cents at $93.57 per cwt. The belly, picnic and ham primals were reported lower, with the belly leading the charge, own $5.60. USDA estimated the Wednesday Federally inspected hog slaughter at 485,000 head, with a weekly total at 1.438 million head. That is down 12,000 head from last week but 101,788 head above the same week last year.
Apr 25 Hogs are at $87.575, up $0.125,
May 25 Hogs are at $88.150, down $0.975
Jun 25 Hogs is at $95.600, down $0.925,
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.